December 26, 2005
By Asha Popatlal
Channel NewsAsia
SINGAPORE : One year after the Indian Ocean tsunami, people are asking if it can happen again and if so, when and where.
Geological expert Professor James Rice of Harvard told Channel NewsAsia another major earthquake and an even bigger tsunami is a very real possibility in Sumatran region.
But as far as Singapore is concerned, its impact is likely to be confined to feeling some ground shaking in the wake of the quake.
'Tsunami' was a word few knew before last December; but in the wake of its devastating impact, many now know what it can do.
The question is, can something like this happen again?
The simple answer is 'yes'; as for when, that is not so easy to answer
Said Professor Rice, "The average repeat time of such earthquakes is 200 to 300 years, but that's an average and it varies greatly. It could be anywhere from tomorrow to 400 years from now. It's very unlikely now that anyone living now in that area which experienced the big tsunami will experience another big tsunami in their lifetime.
He added, "But there is going to be an earthquake that will produce a massive tsunami in that part of Sumatra, with considerable ground-shaking that will affect Singapore and South Malaysia more than the one in December of last year."
While it may be impossible to escape from Mother Nature's wrath, there are lessons to be learnt.
One is education, so that people know what to do in the event of a tsunami.
Professor Rice said, "One thing to start with is education. Everyone should know when they live along a margin susceptible to tsunami, everyone should know when the water retreats you don't follow it out of curiosity, you get to higher ground as fast as you can. There ought to be regular posted signs along the beaches."
The second lesson is advance warning systems, which can give up to about a minute's warning on public broadcast systems before a tsunami arrives.
And the third is looking at the design of the buildings that survived and ensuring such buildings as shopping malls exist, and that people know to get to them.
However, Professor Rice concedes some coastal areas, especially in remote parts of Indonesia, are just too vulnerable.
For the long term, the governments of these areas may need to think of relocating such communities elsewhere. - CNA /ct
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/185405/1/.html