December 29, 2005
CARYN ROUSSEAU
Associated Press Writer

LITTLE ROCK — Double the normal number of tornadoes hit Arkansas in 2005, but the local forecasters at the National Weather Service gave residents warnings of the impending twisters an average 73 percent sooner than the national target.

As of Thursday, 52 tornadoes had struck Arkansas during 2005, causing three fatalities and 31 injuries, according to weather service records. The normal number for an Arkansas year is 26 tornadoes and four fatalities, said forecaster John Robinson.

He said this year's high total comes from two separate tornado outbreaks. One on Nov. 27 spawned 24 tornadoes, and 15 tornadoes touched down as the remnants of Hurricane Rita moved across Arkansas, he said. The two days totaled 39 tornadoes.

"Normally we would not end up with any tornadoes with tropical systems, so that added to the total," Robinson said Thursday.

Of note about the Nov. 27 outbreak was that the same conditions existed that usually appear during the spring tornado season, Robinson said, specifically gulf moisture, a strong cold front and strong winds aloft.

"Time and time again we hear people say we have the big severe weather in the spring," Robinson said. "But several times in the last 10 years we've had more in fall than in the spring."

The National Weather Service's warning system statewide gave Arkansans more time to respond to the increased number of tornadoes, Robinson said. Nationallym the weather service targets at least 13 minutes from the time a tornado warning is issued until the twister touches down, but in Arkansas that average time was 22.5 minutes — giving residents an extra 9.5 minutes to respond. That's 73 percent more time than the agency's national target for warning time.

Robinson credited knowledgeable forecasters who are quick to identify tornadoes on radar models for the extra time.

"We typically do better on our warnings in the bigger outbreaks," Robinson said. "But we'd always like to do better."

In surveys taken after the November tornado outbreak, Robinson said he was surprised to hear so many Arkansans tell him that they didn't find out about the storms from weather warnings but instead from phone calls made by relatives or neighbors.

That worries Robinson, who said that, despite a good warning system, many Arkansans could be injured or killed if a tornado outbreak occurs late at night while many people are sleeping. He suggested Arkansans not depend on outdoor storm sirens and purchase a weather radio that carries local warnings.

The recent stretch of above-average temperatures looks to be backed by a storm system that will move into Arkansas on Sunday evening into Monday morning, Robinson said.

"I believe it will produce some severe weather," he said. "The question is whether it will happen in Arkansas or the southeastern U.S. When we get into one of these very, very warm periods it's not that uncommon when the weather pattern finally changes for there to be severe weather."

On the Net: National Weather Service: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/

Copyright 2005 The Associated Press.

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