'Hell of a Year' for Hurricanes, Experts Warn

Record warm seas for May; storms could complicate Gulf oil disaster

Image: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season (pictured) broke record after record—most named storms, lowest pressure measured in the Atlantic, longest-lived December hurricane—and the list goes on. This image provides a summary of the season, with the track of each named storm marked in black. In all, 30 tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes formed in 2005 (see table at the end of the article). Of these, 26 were named storms, a status given to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this image, the storm tracks are laid on top of sea surface temperature measurements on December 12, 2005, four days after Hurricane Epsilon dissipated. Though temperatures had cooled considerably compared to earlier in the season, a band of warm water, shown in orange, still stretches across the Atlantic from Africa to the Yucatan. Warm ocean waters provide fuel to developing storms. In order for a tropical cyclone to develop, sea surface temperatures need to be above 28 degrees Celsius (82 Fahrenheit), a threshold that is shown in orange in this image. Water in the Gulf of Mexico, where high temperatures fueled the season’s monster storms Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, has now cooled. (NOAA)

May 26, 2010
Reuters

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - The threat of an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active," two leading forecasters said Wednesday. The warning comes as the season also sees an unusual factor added to the mix: the Gulf oil disaster.

William Gray and Phil Klozbach, who head the respected Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, said they would ramp up their prediction for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.

"The numbers are going to go up quite high," Gray said. "This looks like a hell of a year."

On Tuesday, a private weather forecasting company said the 2010 season could be the most active since 2005, which was the most active in recorded history.

Weather Services International predicted 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes, rated as Category 3 storm with winds of 110-130 mph, or greater.

That is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period of 14 named storm, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

These numbers are also an increase from WSI's April forecast of 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its updated 2010 hurricane season forecast on Thursday.

The forecasts are widely watched by energy and commodity markets for signs of potential weather disruptions to oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico during the June to November hurricane season.

Other meteorologists have already predicted conditions are ripe for an unusually destructive hurricane season, which could disrupt efforts to clean up BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

East Coast cited at higher risk

WSI said the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine was twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

"Our model suggests the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said in a release.

WSI said the 2009 tropical season was the quietest since 1997, as an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters to suppress widespread storm development.

"However, the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course this year and everything is in place for an incredibly active season ... eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for May, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," Crawford said.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which included Hurricanes Katrina and Rita that devastated the oil and natural gas-rich U.S. Gulf Coast, was the most active in history, causing more than 1,500 U.S. deaths and more than $115 billion in damages, according to the National Hurricane Center.

"While we've increased our forecast numbers in both of the last two monthly updates, we are still more likely to raise than lower these numbers going forward," Crawford noted.

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