Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
September 16, 2005
By Stan Deyo
The alert for the Indian Ocean community is reduced today. If they get through the weekend without a major incident then the alert will finished for now. However, the seismic pressures in the areas of NIAS (part of the Andaman Arc), North Viet Nam and Eastern India indicate a seismic pressure is building today. The NIAS region appears to be the strongest and could result in a Richter 6 to 7 seismic event within the next 5 days.
Japan is showing a seismic stress which could make a Richter 5+ seismic event.
Fiji has a potential seismic event in the Richter 4.0 to 5.0 range.
The North Island of New Zealand and perhaps the Wellington region show signs of a Richter 4+ event.
Australia is showing signs of Richter 4+ event from the Gulf of Carpentaria southward as shown.
Hawaii is on the edge of a seismic stress buildup today. It could manifest as increased volcanic activity or as a seismic event of Richter 5+ at the west end of the Clarion Fracture zone.
The Kamchatka Peninsula will probably see a volcanic event in the northern portion.
There are two zones on the US West Coast as shown. They cover from San Francisco to Seattle. I think the seismic event(s) will be minor from these signals.
There is, however, a small series of three seismic signals along a fracture zone just south of the Aleutians and north of the western end of the Mendocino Fracture Zone. By itself, this is nothing to worry about; but if the Mendocino starts showing stress signs later then it could be a return of the situation which caused me to issue a red alert in early August. We will have to keep an eye on this developing situation. Because so many pressure zones have appeared and disappeared over the entire planet over the last 6 weeks I am concerned that there will be a large seismic event somewhere in one of the zones that I have been observing....
Also, there appears to be a seismic pressure buildup offshore from New York. However, this area is always hard to read accurately due to the effects of the Gulf Stream and storms over the New England states.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The red circles are quakes predicted 5 days ago, designated with a "4", within Stan's current window. Light red circles are quakes predicted 4 days and so on up through white circles which are today's quakes for the current window.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.