Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
October 20, 2005
By Stan Deyo
20th October NCODA ANALYSIS
USA: Mendocino Fault Zone showing stress signs at three points - one of which is onshore at Mendocino, California. The signal is under the land mas so far that I can only surmise that the seismic strength is small to medium.
USA: Hawaii: Small seismic signal south of the Big Island.
Japan: Two regions are showing small to medium seismic signals today. These are probably aftershocks. The regions are Tokyo and Hakodate.
New Guinea: Irian Jaya region showing small to medium seismic signal.
Australia: Kangaroo Island showing weak seismic signal.
New Caledonia region: Arc fault line above it showing seismic signals in the medium range.
Tahiti: Showing small to medium seismic signal.
Chile: Chiloe region and westward offshore showing small to medium seismic signal.
Columbia: Northern border to Panama showing small seismic signal.
Mexico: Guatemala border region showing small seismic signal along tectonic border.
San Salvador: Small seismic signal.
Sardinia: Showing small seismic signal.
Ionian Sea: Showing small seismic signal.
Gulf of Aden: Small seismic signal.
India/Sri Lanka: Still showing small medium thermal signal.
Japan is still very active.
The pressures under Australia over the last three days may indicate stress along a new major fracture line of the tectonic surface up through the middle from Port Arthur to Port Hedland.
The west coast of the USA is showing definite stress out into the Medocino Fault Zone.
Both sides of The Ring of Fire are grumbling again.
Expect more significant quakes over the next week.
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.