Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
November 17, 2005
By Stan Deyo
USA: Northern California/Oregon showing medium seismic signal at the midpoint of the Juan de Fuca. Southern California/Mexico showing small to medium signal inland about 100 miles or so as best I can estimate based on the offshore signal.
Japan: No new signals show today but aftershocks may still occur offshore from the Honshu quake for a few more weeks.
New Zealand: Continues to show small to medium signals near the Cook Strait.
New Caledonia: Medium strength seismic signal.
Indonesia: From Bali to Timor showing tectonic plate border stress signal. It is more concentrated toward Bali and is of a medium strength.
India: From Bangalore to Sri Lanka showing small seismic signal.
Today's 6.9 quake in Bolivia is but one of 10 or more large quakes in the Ring of Fire in the last month. The west coast of America has remained untouched so far... but I think we can expect a major quake there soon. The small seismic signals of today may be precursors for something later this year. Hopefully I will be able to see the signal far enough in advance to warn folks on our West Coast. That's the state of the world today.... according to:
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.