Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
December 11, 2005
By Stan Deyo
USA: North East Coast showing a weird cooling spot offshore... so I have circled it for consideration..
Okinawa: Showing sign of small quake.
Australia: Victoria may be showing signs of a small to medium seismic event.
New Zealand: Offshore of South Island showing medium seismic signal.
Kermadec Islands: Showing medium seismic signal.
Mexico: offshore to Mexico City showing medium seismic signal. If a large quake happens in this area it can produce tsunamis on the coast there... rapidly.
Africa: Seismic stress showing again on the east side of the southern tip near Madagascar. This signal usually indicates seismic events about to occur much farther inland along the way to Lake Tanganyika.
Summary: The main concern today is the threat of a large quake in SE Africa near the coast or between the coast and Madagascar. If it happens there it could generate a tsunami of considerable strength along the Bombay coastline in India. Under the right conditions I believe it could focus its energy into the Gulf of Khambha toward Indore causing huge damage. HOWEVER,.... it is not cast in stone. Watch the animals in India and Pakistan near the coastline should there be a large quake where I have seen the signal. More as the situation develops.... IF it does.
Please note that when no text summary is provided, look for circles on the maps. These always indicate my areas of concern.
Summaries are written as time permits. These NCODA Earthquake Maps are a free service outside of the normal workday and depending on the data, they may require several hours to analyze. Some days it simply is not possible to provide an additional written summary. Stan Deyo
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.